By James E. Hansen NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Columbia University Earth Institute
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Additional resources for Can we defuse The Global Warming Time Bomb R20070804E
Novakov, J. Atmos. , 9, 347, 1989. 10. Black carbon climate effects: J. Hansen and L. Nazarenko, to be submitted to PNAS, 2003. 11. CO2 emissions data: (a) G. Marland & T. Boden, CO2 Information Center, Oak Ridge Natl. htm); (b) British Petroleum 52nd Statistical Review of World Energy, 2003; (c) Some analysts argue that the reported decline of coal use in China beginning in the late 1990s was overstated, while others argue that the reported coal use for 2002 (28% higher than 2001) is exaggerated.
The sea change in energy growth rates that occurred in 1973, with the oil embargo and energy price increase, is less apparent in Figure 16 than in Figure 11, although the discerning eye might note the change from exponential growth prior to 1973 to essentially linear growth (constant growth) since 1973. A realistic projection of current trends is a continuation of that constant growth rate, the dash-dot line in Figure 16. “Constant growth” at the rate of the past three decades falls below the IPCC scenarios, and “constant emissions” falls far below the IPCC scenarios.
A. and T. Novakov, J. Atmos. , 9, 347, 1989. 10. Black carbon climate effects: J. Hansen and L. Nazarenko, to be submitted to PNAS, 2003. 11. CO2 emissions data: (a) G. Marland & T. Boden, CO2 Information Center, Oak Ridge Natl. htm); (b) British Petroleum 52nd Statistical Review of World Energy, 2003; (c) Some analysts argue that the reported decline of coal use in China beginning in the late 1990s was overstated, while others argue that the reported coal use for 2002 (28% higher than 2001) is exaggerated.